Jon Ossoff is a 30 year old jewish democrat is seeking to take Tom Price’s congressional seat in a special election on June 20th. Tom Price is vacating his seat because he is now the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services. Tom Price has held that seat since 2004 when he won 100% of the vote. In 2016, Price retained Georgia’s 6th congressional seat in 2016 with 62% of the vote. One could easily argue that the 6th district is a bright red republican district since a republican has held that seat since the 1970’s but it is not a clear Trump district. President Trump only won the 6th district by 1%, 48% to 47%.
Ossoff can take some sense of excitement that he won 48% of the vote in the recent runoff but, to be fair, the republican vote was split between 18 republican contenders. Since this wasn’t a strong Trump district in the presidential campaign, his unfavorable ratings might have no effect on voter turn out. That said, President Trumps unfavorable ratings have actually improved since November election night, coming down from 57% to 52%.
In the end, it will come down to turnout. In the last mid-term election in the 6th district, 210,000 votes were cast – 66% to Tom Price. In the special election, 192,000 votes were cast. There was only a 10% decline between mid-terms and the special election, which shows and amazing amount of enthusiasm on both sides. The most recent poll shows the republican contender, Karen Handel, with a slight lead…..a lead within the poll’s margin of error. After the 2016 election, the validity of election polls are rightly taken with a grain of salt……and a little suspicion. National teams on both sides of the aisle are paying attention and putting is significant amount of money. This could be the most expensive congressional campaign in history with $30 million paid on televisions ads alone.
Share your point of view. Will the democrats take the solid republican district? Does it matter?